12.29.21 BTC / USD Technical Analysis: Support Test, After Short Rise, Fall?

Bitcoin (BTC) finally tested support yesterday, hovering around $ 47,000. As I just pointed out in my last review, the probability of retesting was increasing. So what does this mean for us now? Should we expect a bigger drop?

Dow theory

Current situation at 4H BTC / USD

Therefore, it is now certain that two attempts to break the $ 52,500 S / R level were unsuccessful. At the same time, it looked very promising thanks to several days of consolidation below resistance. On intraday charts, it is easy to see what the launches themselves looked like. It shows that the two breakout attempts stopped almost immediately.

After the second rejection, one day was enough to return us to $ 47,000. And we currently have more than 12 hours since the exchange rate consolidated at this level. So far, the price chart shows that buyers are not developing any initiative, in terms of thinking. The rate of decline has simply stopped, it is on hold.

Regardless, support is still at risk as sellers have shown their strength after more than two weeks. Now there is nothing else to do but wait and see if a bounce or break occurs. And depending on that, arrangements can be made. In fact, the bounce itself may not be a good indicator, as bitcoin has been in a range of $ 47,000 to $ 52,500 for the entire month of December. Therefore, a rebound will not move the market.

If the current support breaks, I would indeed be inclined to test this $ 42,000. After this brief setback because it created room for further decline. But this $ 42,000 is a historically very strong level. There is a strong confluence that should not allow easy progress.


If there is a second test of $ 42,000, it can cause a price expansion that lasts much longer than a few days. It depends, of course, on the real reaction of the exchange rate to touch. But at the moment, we have no reason to believe that the exchange rate will easily break support in the event of a pullback. Unless there was some kind of total panic. So we might as well go up to $ 30,000 at once.

DISCLAIMER: Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice. The analysis does not attempt to predict future price movements. It serves only as an educational text on how to approach the market in a thoughtful way. Do your own research and analysis before making an investment, you always trade at your own risk. The team strongly recommends taking individual risks into account!

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