Crypto

Bitcoin, gold: why its price could rise in 2022

This article is from Capital magazine

In 2021 again, it was the most daring who reaped the biggest gains: in fact, bitcoin saw its price skyrocket, reaching €58,000 at its peak in early November. Since then, its price has dropped and is currently around 33,000 euros. As for stock products, which multiply the evolution of shares or raw materials, they have naturally benefited from the good behavior of the financial markets. “Renewed price volatility, due to the pandemic, has led to an increase in volumes traded on these media,” adds Thibaud Renoult, head of stock products for France, Belgium and the Netherlands at Societe Generale. This time, it is renewed inflation that could support bitcoin and gold prices. So many products that should weigh no more than 5-10% of your assets.

Gold bars and coins

Product showing higher revenue potential by 2022

Yield 2021: +3% for the ounce of gold, in euros
Risk: medium to high
Holding period: a few months to several years

Along with other alternative investments, gold has paled in 2021. In fact, only the appreciation of the dollar since January 1 has allowed it to record a slight gain, for holders in euros: the price of an ounce in dollars, for its On the other hand, it has lost 3% However, investors could regain their appetite for the yellow metal, in the event of an epidemic recovery, or if inflation remains strong, particularly in the United States, and keep interest rates at their level lower, after deducting this price increase. “The price per ounce has been on a solid footing since last spring,” confirms Arnaud du Plessis, specialist gold and natural resources manager at CPR AM.

To play to this effect, instead of an ingot, invoiced at 51,000 euros, he prefers ingots (from 288 euros for 5 grams), or the Napoleon of 20 francs (310 euros). Whether you buy at a specialized pharmacy, through your bank or through a website, make sure you keep the invoice, which is essential to benefit from the capital gains exemption scheme.

Taxation: In the absence of a purchase invoice, a flat tax of 11.5%, including social security contributions, is applied on the total amount of physical gold sold. If the date and price of acquisition are proven, you can opt for capital gains taxation, at the single rate of 19%, to which is added 17.2% of social security contributions. A deduction for length of detention is then applied, of 5% per year from the third year of detention, for a full exemption after twenty-two years.

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Leveraged Exchange Products

Product showing stable earning potential by 2022

Profit: linked to the leverage effect used (from 2 to 40 times the bet)
Potential loss: 100%
Length of detention: a few days to a few weeks

With more than 160,000 new media launched between January and September 2021, for a traded volume of 5.3 billion euros, already 20% higher than the whole of 2019, stock market products are on the rise. Remember that with these investments it is a matter of multiplying, upwards or downwards, the evolution of a multitude of underlying assets (variable income, stock market indices or raw materials). The associated leverage can go up to 40 times the stake. “The vast majority of investors focus on 7 to 8 leverage,” says Thibaud Renoult. These products have the advantage of being listed on the stock market, and therefore accessible from your usual financial intermediary, through a traditional securities account.

In detail, turbos are the ones that arouse the most enthusiasm, with 71% of trade. They have a removal barrier which, if broken, causes their price to drop to zero. Warrants (19% of trading) are complex to manage, the leverage effect depending on the evolution of the underlying as well as the time remaining before expiration. “We usually don’t hold them for more than a day, because you have to quickly realize your profit or liquidate your position, if the initial scenario is invalidated,” Thibaud Renoult describes. Finally, Short and Leverage certificates (10% of trading) have a fixed leverage, between 2 and 10 times. A short X4 on the CAC 40 gains 4% when the index falls 1% on the session.

Taxation: earnings are subject to 17.2% social security contributions and IR (income tax) through a deposit at a rate of 12.8%. In the global option, they can be imposed on the IR scale.

Forex currencies

Product showing stable earning potential by 2022

Profit: linked to the leverage effect used (up to 30 times the stake)
Potential loss: 100%
Duration of detention: from a few hours to a few days

Following the Covid crisis, the global forex market has once again attracted the interest of amateur traders. Here alone, studies show that these individuals more often than not bet against the grain and quickly lose their shirt, which inversely magnifies the profits of specialized funds. In 2021, these investors have thus mainly bet on an appreciation of the euro against the dollar, while the opposite has happened, the single currency having lost 8% against the American currency.

Haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc depreciated against the euro. We need to be even more vigilant in these markets as unscrupulous brokers now encourage people to order through platforms registered outside the European Union. A way to circumvent the rules established by the supervisory authorities, which limit the leverage associated with currency products to 30, for example, in the case of highly speculative CFDs (“contracts for difference”). Therefore, it is better to try your luck through stock products, through your usual intermediary.

Taxation: identical to that of stock products.

bitcoin, cryptocurrencies

Product showing higher revenue potential by 2022

Bitcoin performance 2021: +63% in euros
Potential loss: 100%
Duration of detention: from a few hours to several months

Although it has been discontinued since the beginning of the year, the price of bitcoin could go up. “The reinforced presence of institutional investors in the market gives it new credibility,” underlines Manuel Valente, scientific director of Coinhouse, the first intermediary recognized, since 2020, as PSAN (service provider on digital assets) by the AMF (Authority of the financial markets) . To place your orders, please favor this type of labeled platform, now numbering 30, which provide access to a wide spectrum of cryptocurrencies.

Some lesser known coins than bitcoin also have potential. The last few months have also seen the launch of the first exchange-traded funds, replicating the evolution of bitcoin, be they US ETFs (issued by ProShares and Valkyrie) or European ETPs (issued by 21Shares, in bitcoin and ethereum). Note: the new brochures, denominated in virtual currencies, are now available. Coinhouse’s is therefore based on tether, a cryptocurrency linked to the dollar, and guarantees a return of 6.5%. The rate is fixed for thirteen weeks and is then subject to review. “The solution is based on a cryptocurrency lending/lending mechanism, which provides a return,” describes Romain Saguy, Coinhouse’s director of marketing.

Taxation: none if the exchanges are between cryptocurrencies, or if the profit is converted to euros, and less than 305 euros. In the other cases, the capital gains bear social security contributions of 17.2%, as well as the tax, at the single rate of 12.8%.

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