- Bitcoin price shows massive consolidation above the 200-week SMA at $22,794.
- The fractal formation is in its final stages and has yet to retest $23,666 before falling to $21,140 or other targets.
- A daily candlestick closing above $24,565 turning it into a support level would negate the bullish thesis.
Bitcoin price shows weak performance despite news of BlackRock’s entry into the cryptocurrency. With the focus on Ethereum and the upcoming merger update, investors seem to be overlooking BTC, which could explain its slow sideways movement.
However, this could change in terms of volatility as the bears take control due to this fractal formation that foresees a strong correction.
Bitcoin price is waiting for the right moment
The fractal price formation of bitcoin mentioned above revolves around the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA). The last time BTC broke above this level above the EMA, it was up about 13% and set a local high at $24,296.
The reversal of this move occurred over the next five days and consisted of a double top formation at $22,999 and a quick break of the 30-day EMA, resulting in another drop. This price action took place over the course of eight days and resulted in a complete reversal of profits.
The fractal seems to be repeating again, but this time when BTC broke the 30-day EMA, it set a local high at $24,565, which is the midpoint of the 42% that occurred between April and June 2022.
The double top formation at $23,666 is the only move left to complete the fractal. Once this double top forms, the chances of a possible decline increase. In such a case, at least based on historical data, the price of Bitcoin could rise again to $21,440, offsetting the price inefficiency.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
On the other hand, if the price of bitcoin breaks the $23,666 resistance level, this will invalidate the fractal. However, the bearish thesis will be invalidated if BTC creates a daily candle above $24,565 and flips it to the support floor.