Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Markets Are Medium, But BTC Price Still Not Determined | Cryptocurrency – NetCost and security

  • Bitcoin price will rise as CME plans to launch Micro BTC Futures on May 3rd.
  • Unsurprisingly, the SEC postponed its Bitcoin ETF decision, extending the deadline to June 17th.
  • BTC is showing ambiguity as it may hit a new all-time high or undergo a major correction.

Bitcoin price is showing significant strength after recent disruptions. However, it is unclear if the current bullish momentum will turn into a new uptrend or lead to a deeper decline.

It’s CME’s turn to carry the BTC torch

While there was blood in the markets last week, things seem to have calmed down as Bitcoin seems to have found its balance.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced the launch of Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) on May 3, which could spark interest from retail investors.

According to the company’s senior managing director, Sean Tully, the decision to launch this new financial product was made after the company received $ 4.70 million in revenue in the first quarter of 2021 from offering Bitcoin futures contracts. CME now expects MBT to reach a larger audience due to its relatively smaller lot size and commission structure.

At the other end of the spectrum, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has given itself the opportunity to decide on VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF. The Fast Track Institutional Request can play a key role in whether or not it gets approved.

The April 28 decree reads:

… Pursuant to Section 19 (b) (2) of Law 6, the Commission shall designate June 17, 2021 as the date on which the Commission will approve or disapprove or initiate proceedings to determine whether it approves the rule change …

As US regulators continue to evaluate Bitcoin ETF approval, institutions continue to accumulate more Bitcoin. Nexon became the last publicly traded company to acquire BTC.

The Tokyo-based gaming company bought $ 100 million worth of bitcoin at an average price of $ 58,266, joining Telsa, MicroStrategy and others.

Bitcoin price is at a crossroads

Bitcoin price dropped to $ 47,000 on April 25, but quickly recouped the losses and is now at a turning point. Indeed, it could well start a new rally that would eliminate current highs like Ethereum, or it could be the start of a much steeper correction.

The weekly chart puts the sudden crash into perspective and shows that the downside momentum pushed the price of BTC into early March territory, but failed to test the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $ 44,996. If this level were reached, a bullish scenario would be acceptable.

In previous bullish races, BTC bounced off this EMA, continuing its parabolic rally. Thus, investors can see the bitcoin price hitting such a critical support level this time around. But for this to happen, a decisive daily candle close below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $ 50,655 must occur. While the 21-week EMA could contain the price decline, failing to keep it higher is likely to push the 200-day SMA down to $ 36,022.

BTC / USD 1 week. 1-day chart

Dave Volna, a renowned technical analyst in the cryptocurrency community, believes the drop carries a lot of weight. According to the analyst, the current bullish cycle was similar to that of 2017. Given the recent price movement and the movement of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a sharp correction could occur.

Dave clarified that “a strong correction does not mean a multi-year bear market,” but perhaps it is necessary to maintain a healthy uptrend in Bitcoin.

BTC / USD chart for 1 week

BTC / USD chart for 1 week

Some indicators within the network claim that a sharper correction is now taking place.

For example, the number of daily active addresses interacting with the Bitcoin network has been steadily declining over the past few weeks. It increased from 1.10 million daily active addresses to 1.05 million, down 4.50%.

This online activity suggests that investors can either reserve profits or reallocate their funds, which is a bearish sign.

Table of daily active BTC addresses

Table of daily active BTC addresses

Additionally, Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV shows that most BTC tokens purchased last year are 50% higher than when they were purchased. The high levels of profit that investors can now make if they sell indicate that a potential peak in profit-taking is underway.

Interestingly, the recent peak seen in the 365-day MVRV coincides with the peak in late June 2019, which was marked by a local high at the time. A similar market reaction to this intranet metric could cause Bitcoin to adjust at least a 21-week EMA to $ 44,996.

MVRV 365-day BTC chart

MVRV 365-day BTC chart

Despite the grim worst-case scenario, the whales continue to accumulate more bitcoins with each dive.

The Bitcoin supply distribution graph shows that addresses with 10,000 BTC or more have dramatically increased their holdings over the past week. These wealthy people acquired around 60,000 BTC and now own almost 14% of the total supply.

Massive buying pressure on the flagship cryptocurrency contradicts the bearish scenario described above, calling for a continuation of the uptrend.

BTC Supply Distribution Council

BTC Supply Distribution Council

If buyers manage to push Bitcoin above $ 60,103 and hold above this critical hurdle, the bearish scenario is likely to be invalidated.

However, investors should pay close attention to the 100-day SMA at $ 50,655, as a decisive close below that level would send BTC into free fall towards the 21-week EMA at $ 44,996 or the 200-day SMA at $ 36,022. dollar.

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