Science

Emile Servan-Schreiber: “As in 2016, Donald Trump has a 1 in 3 chance of being elected”


For the boss of Hypermind, who predicts the future using a betting method that values ​​collective intelligence, the president has as much chance of winning as he did four years ago.

“Donald Trump has exactly as much chance of winning against Joe Biden as he had in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, that is to say exactly 32% chance or, in other words, 1 chance in 3.” Such is the “photograph” of the electoral situation a few days before the American presidential election, according to Hypermind, a pioneer company in the sector of “predictive markets”, which makes forecasts in various fields (geopolitics, economics, politics) in s ” relying on the collective intelligence of large panels of punters.

This calculation of probabilities is not to be taken lightly because, according to the Washington Post, Hypermind’s forecasts in 2016 were more precise and reliable than opinion polls. While no one had seen the possibility of an election for Trump coming, Hypermind estimated it at 33%. Exactly like today.

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