Australian dollar recovers from 2023 low
- Australian dollar recovers from new multi-month lows
- Threat of AUD/USD Depletion – Broader Downward Outlook
- Resistance 6816, 6865, 6922 (key) – support 6547, 6393 (key), 6200/10
The Aussie fell nearly 8.3% in forex from a yearly high, with the decline reversing shortly before key technical support this week. The focus is on this rebound from exhaustion within the broader boundaries of the 2021 downtrend. It is the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.
AUD/USD weekly chart
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Technical Outlook: Last month we noted in the AUD Technical Outlook that AUD/USD “stretched into a major reversal zone on confluent resistance and the broader October rally could be vulnerable…” 6.6% below mid-February highs.
The decline reversed just before support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October upswing at 6547 (low was recorded at 6564) and the rally is now testing the close of the 2008 week low/2019 low at 6670/73. Watch the week close against this key pivot zone.
Weekly resistance holds at yearly open at 6816, supported by 52-week MA (currently ~6865). Wider bearish invalidation is now at 1-year close of weekly high (reversal close) at 6922 – weekly break/close above was needed to shift focus to yearly highs.
1-week break/close below Fibonacci support here threatens resumption of wider downtrend towards October 2022 midline/reversal – close at 6393 – look for stronger reaction there if reached.
Conclusion: The AUD/USD pair has fallen for five of the last six weeks in forex with a break below the yearly opening price, returning the price to multi-month lows. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the higher parallel that AUD/USD is facing and if it is down, look for a more meaningful reaction when testing Fibonacci support with a close below it needed to signify a recovery. I will post an update on the short-term outlook for the Australian dollar once we have more clarity on short-term technical trading levels.
Michel Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist FOREX.com » Official Website
Michael Boutros has over 20 years of experience in forex, commodities and stock indices. For nearly two decades, Michael has worked for numerous trading centers, brokerages and market news websites including Gain Capital, MG Financial, ForexNews.com, Velocity Trade, FXCM, IG and has been with DailyFX for almost twelve years. He has also been quoted by numerous financial publications, including Reuters, Wall St Journal, CNBC, Bloomberg and KITCO.
Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in this report are for general information only and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any currency contracts or CFDs. Although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, the author does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential damages that may result from anyone relying on such information.