How low can the price of bitcoin fall?
Bitcoin has spent over a year in a downtrend since its all-time high of around $69,000 in November 2021.
Bitcoin price dynamics brought investors up to 77% losses, but how realistically can the price fall?
Bitcoin traders and analysts have long agreed that 2022 is the year of the biggest cryptocurrency bear market ever.
See also » How to make money on the fall of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies?
After hitting all-time highs at the start of the year at around $46,000, Bitcoin didn’t offer much relief and has since returned to levels not seen since November 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
This has caused the price of Bitcoin to hit all-time bear market lows – having lost a high of about 77% since the last peak, there may be little room for BTC price to fall.
However, this time around, things might be different. Cointelegraph analyzes what some of the most popular cryptocurrency market commentators think when it comes to where bitcoin could bottom out.
CryptoBullet » “Comfortable Buy” around $16,000
A well-known personality in social networks adheres to the theory of the beginning of 2022, and this is a specific blockchain metric. For CryptoBullet, Cumulative Payback Days Lost (CVDD) still provides a key insight into BTC price lows.
CVDD basically counts the number of days a coin accumulated when it moved to a new wallet. It is expressed as the ratio of the total age of the market to 6 million, which, according to the Woobull analytics resource, is a “calibration factor”.
Looking back over time, CVDD has acted as an important line in the sand, and if things don’t change this time around, Bitcoin’s price may already be giving buyers the best profit opportunity possible.
According to Woobull, CVDD is currently around $15,900.
“I feel comfortable buying bitcoin here at CVDD,” CryptoBullet told his Twitter followers on Nov. 26.
“Is it possible to go even lower? Of course it is possible. If another crypto exchange goes bankrupt or something like that, the price of bitcoin will fall below CVDD, but not by much. Most of the downtrend is over.”
Filbfilb » $6,500 as Bitcoin’s ‘Worst Case’
The crypto veteran is constantly overestimating how hard the bears can bite this time around.
Filbfilb, co-founder of Decentrader trading package, recently told Cointelegraph that the price of bitcoin could rise to $10,000 over the course of the new year if macro conditions worsen.
However, this was before the FTX fiasco, and adding fuel to the bear market fire made him change his mind.
Live with its co-founder Philip Swift, Filbfilb described areas of strong application support as potential vehicles.
However, they differ – a large “ladder” of offers is just below the spot price and is focused on $12,000-14,000. At the same time, marginal support could drop to $6,000.
Filbfilb also noted that a black swan event such as new crypto exchange bankruptcies could cause a surge in the upper support field, paving the way to $10,000 or below.
However, a trip to the $6,000 zone is “unlikely” under the current circumstances, he added.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weekly chart with liquidity thermograph data.
Source: Trade Review
Eyes turn to $14,000
Top-level support for Filbfilb orders on stock order books is a popular target for a growing number of commentators.
As reported by Cointelegraph, $14,000 is currently an important level on the radar and entries around it are already pending.
This area will also lead to losses from all-time highs corresponding to previous bear markets.
Graph of Bitcoin Price Decline Compared to Historical Data
Not only that, but the $13,900 level represents an important support line on the weekly chart, notes trader and analyst at Rekt Capital, a line that has not been tested since the second half of 2020.
Annotated BTC/USD chart
Source: Rect Capital/Twitter
William Subberg, Cointelegraph
William Subberg got into bitcoin when he got his master’s degree and has never looked back since then, writing about everything related to cryptocurrency that turns him on and attracts attention. He started working with Cointelegraph in October 2013.
The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Forex Quebec. Every investment and trading move involves risk, so you should do your own research when making a decision.
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