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Stock Market: CAC 40, LVMH, Hermès, M6, TotalEnergies, Airbus, Air Liquide… in Momentum this week

CAC 40, DAX, Dow Jones, Nasdaq… The past week should be forgotten by the stock markets as the world’s largest central banks “continue their fantastic road to tackling inflation,” notes La Banque Postale Asset Management (LBPAM). , who believes that “the race to tighten monetary policy can be called historic in its scope and speed.” In September, the central banks of the US (Fed), Eurozone (ECB), Great Britain (Bank of England), Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand really significantly increased their rates.

First of all, the Fed’s rate hike “must continue,” LBPAM stresses. And the ECB should not be left behind as wages soar and tensions with Russia prop up gas prices (among other things). “The strong tightening of monetary policy that we are seeing should always prompt us to be cautious,” the asset manager said, because, as the markets say, “we are not fighting central banks.”

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Beware of a continuation of the uptrend in long-term rates

Upward pressure should remain on interest rates. According to LBPAM, “there is no ambiguity about the direction of monetary policy in the coming months: the (rate) hike will not only continue, but will happen at a rapid pace,” while the Fed “wants to move on.” move quickly to a monetary policy that is clearly restrictive” (therefore positive real rates, which is what the central bank is aiming for by 2023).

Recession Risk and Earnings Warnings for Listed Companies

And stocks continue to worry. For LBPAM, the riskiest assets (including equities) remain “at risk in this very unfavorable environment.” Given the scale of monetary tightening and the economic slowdown already underway, “the risk is indeed in a much worse economic environment,” warns the asset manager, for whom a recession is the most likely scenario and a reversal is expected in the coming months or in 2023. In this context, we can only fear a wave of earnings warnings from listed companies, which could put further downward pressure on share prices…

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War in Ukraine: Is mobilization a turning point?

On the war front in Ukraine, the consequences of Vladimir Putin’s decision to call for a partial mobilization of the population (300,000 reservists could be called up) are unclear. Indeed, this decision shows her readiness for a counter-offensive, with the conflict escalating as a consequence, but also a recognition of the weakness of her army in the face of a breakthrough by Kyiv troops in northern Ukraine.

The news of the mobilization “appears to have a rather negative and noticeable impact on the Russian population for the first time since the start of the conflict,” while this development runs counter to the promises made in Beijing and New Delhi to seek appeasement. days ago. “Of course, it is still too early to say whether this decision will be a new turning point in the conflict. Will it strengthen Russia in this war or weaken Vladimir Putin?” asks LBPAM.

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Impulse out of the game

Momentum, Capital’s dedicated daily investment letter and newsletter that helps its readers identify entry (buy) and exit (sell) points for stocks (and major cryptocurrencies), once again knows how to steer our boat in the face of market turmoil. … We were expecting the recent strong wave of CAC 40 decline from September 14 (so a very good time), after having already wisely returned to selling in mid-August or close to the summer peak in the stock market. market. Expectations based, among other things, on technical analysis…

We have met our expectations (bullish or bearish) for the CAC 40, S&P 500 (Wall Street), the major CAC 40 stocks (LVMH, Hermès, TotalEnergies, Air Liquide, Airbus, Danone, L’Oréal, etc.) and smaller companies. stocks of scales (Métropole Télévision, known from the channel M6, Bic, Virbac, etc.). And cryptocurrency enthusiasts have not been forgotten as the prospects for Bitcoin and the atom have been dissected.

In terms of satisfaction, we warned our readers in a timely manner about the imminent fall in the prices of major technology stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, etc.) or growth stocks (LVMH, Hermès, etc.). Conversely, while some of the stocks in our mid-term stock sample did not come out unscathed from the general stock market crash, many of the stocks that we were bullish on did dampen the shock quite well (TFF, Euroapi, Airbus, Boiron…) , some even achieved more than resistance (like the Métropole Télévision, driven by speculation).

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How to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the Exchange?

Are you looking for investment opportunities in the stock market? Discover in Momentum many analyzes (economic, financial and technical), our price forecasts (our mid-term or short-term expectations) and top news to remember… Every day at 12:30, in your mailbox e- mail for only 6.90 euros per month. And right now, use the promo code CAPITAL30J for a free trial month. To subscribe, simply click on the link below.

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Author’s statement of interest

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