Will Bitcoin be bullish after being carried away by the US market? Weekly macro update

A summer favorable for risky assets? “Risk assets are bouncing back, and it may not be the end yet. Bitcoin has rebounded almost 40% since June 20, and Ethereum is up 80% ahead of the merger. On Wednesday, the Fed will announce new interest rate decisions. Also, players are waiting for the publication of the results of such American technology giants as Alphabet (Google), Apple, Meta (Facebook), Amazon and Microsoft. As you already understood, this is an important week that should bring volatility. It is likely that all these events have already been evaluated by the market, vigilance will still have to be exercised. For this, there is nothing better than to take a step back from the situation, let’s take a look at the charts.

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Bitcoin is struggling to continue its rise…

Bitcoin recovered and even broke its range up. After just a few days outside the range, Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness:

Bitcoin price against the dollar (1D)

At the end of May, Bitcoin broke out of the range from above and returned to it very quickly. The reintegration of the range brought the price to support, which gave way.

When the range is broken up, sellers have positions in the red because they are selling at the resistance level. After the cross, the goal of the buyers is to keep the sellers on their toes. However, the reintegration of the range shows that the sellers managed to win over the buyers in a favorable environment for them. It is for this reason that in technical analysis we are cautious about the reintegrations that we currently have.

If the reintegration is confirmed, bitcoin is likely to find support at $19,200. A repetition of the situation at the end of May and the formation of a new low is not ruled out. The momentum is still strong and could support the price. This could allow Bitcoin to bounce back in a pinch.

Risk Off: Gold bounces off weekly support and USD blocks resistance.

Gold tries to recover to $1690

We talked about this last week, gold found support at $1690:

Gold rises to the weekly support level.The price of gold against the dollar (1W)

Since April 2020, gold appears to have stabilized in a range that includes a $1970 high and $1690 low. The support is doing its job again and the bullish trendline is close. The price will need to hold support and a trendline to keep below $1690.

At the moment, the main trend for this asset is bullish. A break of support will spoil gold’s momentum in the medium term. Buyers must protect these levels. Now the momentum is bearish.

dollar stuck

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to raise rates. However, the dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies, including the euro. It looks like the ECB statement helped slow down the dollar:

The dollar index is stuck at a weekly resistance level.Dollar Index Chart (1W)

It’s too early to think that the rise of this safe-haven asset is over. At the moment, the price is deviating from the resistance, but there is still no change in momentum. He should lock up at this level and join support in the coming weeks or months. Keep in mind that risky assets tend to trade when the dollar is weak.

The momentum may start to wane, but again nothing is confirmed at the moment. The RSI is rarely overbought like it is now. If the momentum continues to fall, it will show that upside potential is drying up and sellers can regain control.

Bullish continuation for the US market?

The numbers of the various companies mentioned in the introduction shouldn’t spoil the party because the US market is recovering and could continue to rise.

S&P 500 rises again and breaks resistance at $3,900.

The buyers manage to force the sellers to yield. Resistance at $3,900 is finally broken:

S&P 500 breaks resistance at $3,900.S&P 500 price against the dollar (1D)

Having met resistance twice at $3,900, buyers manage to break through the resistance. At the same time, the bearish trendline is giving way. On a daily basis, momentum is now bullish with rising lows and highs.

Buyers must now do their best not to break below the resistance-turned-support level. Momentum is strong and could mark a divergence on close above 65. If buyers persist, next resistance is at $4165.

Coinbase continues to aim for $84

Coinbase shares seem to have found buyers and the rally doesn’t seem to be over yet:

Coinbase may continue rising to $84.Coinbase price against USD (1D)

Buyers definitely need to keep pushing for a change in momentum on a daily and weekly basis. To do this, the price must close above $84. At the moment, the price is deviating from the level of the descending trendline, but the area indicated at $63 (green) seems to be conducive to a bounce to $84 or even $104 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). The momentum of the RSI has broken the bearish trendline and this could give the bulls strength.

In short, Coinbase looks bullish in the short term, but the underlying trend remains bearish. Definitely need to change momentum by closing above $84.

NASDAQ Confirms Bullish Divergence

The Nasdaq is in the same situation as the S&P 500:

NASDAQ breaks resistance at $12,200.NASDAQ price against the dollar (1D)

The NASDAQ is showing encouraging signs. Indeed, after two failed attempts, buyers manage to break through the resistance at $12,200. This area should now become the backbone of the course. If so, then the next resistance is at around $13,000. The price turned bullish again thanks to a close above $12,170.

In addition, the momentum confirms the bullish divergence by managing to cross the RSI level above 54. This shows that the downtrend is fizzling out and buyers can take advantage of this.

The market is showing encouraging signs for risky assets. The dollar is starting to lose strength, although it is still in an uptrend. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have managed to overcome resistance and may well continue to rise. Beware, the week is busy and disappointing results could bring sellers back. Bitcoin shows excitement as it enters the $21,800 to $19,200 range again. Buyers must respond quickly. Whatever happens, Bitcoin is likely to follow the movements of the US market because it is a risky asset. It remains to be hoped that the results of Gafam will not surprise the players and the rebound that has begun in the markets will continue.

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