Will the king of crypto finally pull himself together? “If 2022 is sure to be the year Bitcoin’s price is forgotten, its bearish rally since the last ATH in November 2021 remains sharply resilient. To the point that many cryptocurrency investors should make a clear observation rather than hitting the Fed, which is itself bound to keep high inflation in the United States for over 40 years. Moreover, the current uncertainty in the financial markets has not yet been compensated by the positive catalysts of the blue chips.
But at a time when the major risk asset classes tend to perform well as the end of the year approaches, it is not out of the question to consider a possible awakening of BTC bulls. Not that we should count on a trend reversal, but rather on recouping the losses caused by the FTX bankruptcy.
While this seems like a bold scenario given the recent developments on the crypto planet, let’s see if the latest bitcoin price technical analyzes can help ease the note at the end of the year.
Bitcoin in weekly units - the price is timidly approaching the Tenkan and the fall line
The bulls are trying to rekindle the flames by maintaining $16,000 support for the fourth straight week. Even if this technical signal remains timid at this stage, it will not detract from their short-term ability to limit the amplitude of the third wave of bear market correction.
However, if the final bounce occurs, the bulls should take into account the position of the price of Bitcoin relative to the Ichimoku curves. And a lot of obstacles looms.
First, BTC and Chikou Span prices have always stagnated below the Kumo (Ichimoku Cloud) for many months. Second, Chikou Span is struggling to hang a $20,000 wagon (or 2017 ATH). If a pullback occurs in the coming weeks, we will fear that the third wave of correction will take on a disproportionately large size. And lately, the bearish trajectory of Kumo, predicted by the weekly units, may delay the start of the neutralization of the bearish run.
In the event of a final return to $16,000 based on the signals sent by the Japanese technical indicator, the crypto king could possibly afford a downline and return to the $20,000 level. At the same time, prices will rise slightly above Tenkan. And if the 2017 ATH moves from resistance to support, the bulls will target the resistance at $26,000 and bring prices closer to Kumo. With the downside that Chikou Span will still be far away from the account compared to the cloud.
Bitcoin in Daily Units – Prices Above Tenkan, but Still on the Wire
Thanks to the bullish candle of the last session of November, Bitcoin prices confirm their Tenkan cross in addition to $16,000 retracement. That being said, we could have expected better. But given what the king of crypto has been drooling over lately, you should know how to settle for a few positive signals on a graphical level.
Despite the recent daily candles closing below the descending line and the Kijun, the bears seem to be oblivious to the prospect of a return to $20,000. Which would coincide with BTC prices above Kumo in daily units. But, on the other hand, the chikou span would have collided below the descending line and one of the borders of the Ichimoku cloud. And that’s why aiming for $26,000 would be surreal. Moreover, the downward line crossing risks becoming obsolete if the market conditions subsequently deteriorate significantly.
Conversely, an instant breakout of $16,000 or a pullback below $20,000 will unfortunately facilitate a third corrective wave after the November 2021-January 2022 and April-June 2022 corrective waves. With concern that support at $12,000 is not the end point of the cryptocurrency. royal bear run. In addition, this will confirm the unfavorable price relationship between BTC and Chikou Span in relation to Kumo.
If the bad news about the FTX bankruptcy is partly priced in, then bitcoin bulls could be allowed to resurrect until at least the end of the year. Provided, sine qua non, that another scandal does not come out of the hat. However, the bulls will have to fight the Fed, which will not loosen its grip anytime soon.
As a reminder, a 75-50 bps cut in the rate hike always means that we are dealing with continued monetary tightening by the US central bank. Because, let’s not forget, the current inflation in the US, coupled with rising bond rates and the dollar, currently implies a high risk premium.
Consequently, the most liquidity-sensitive asset classes in the financial markets will continue to drink to the bottom. In this case, Bitcoin’s bear run since its last ATH in November 2021 will go into overtime with the goal of raising 2018 standards.
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